The Technology Stig

Ever since devices became ‘Location Aware’ ,there has been talk of Location Based Services(LBS) becoming the next big thing.A basic LBS app working on cellphones and through the GSM triangulation method was first introduced in japan by DoCoMo. It’s been 8 yrs since then  and although LBS has found a lot of uptake in the enterprise segment. I am still waiting for LBS to be the next Big Thing for retail consumers. My first brush with LBS was about 3 yrs ago ,when my team  had to work with an OEM in the far east to integrate our application with their device(with in built GPS) ,running their Map Software.At that point in time it was one of the very few smartphones to have an in built GPS module.Although the phone and our  app customized for that specific phone did not take off, i was of the view that with time and better penetration of the GPS enabled smartphones ,LBS will find acceptance in the retail consumer world.

The problem with LBS is that inherently it is a pretty invasive service.People value their privacy and are generally edgy about reavealing their location to everybody without having too much control over it.People tend to be ok with revealing their location in anonymity.This is the reason why Google Maps is more successfull than Google Lattitude.When people use Google Maps on their GPS enabled phones, their cell tower id is transmitted along with their GPS location ,while requesting for a map.This data is then processed which enables Google to let people,using non-GPS phones to know their approximate location on Google Maps.Google Lattitude is a slight extenstion to Google Maps where people can enable their buddies to see their location on Google Maps.There hasn’t been a serious uptake of Google Lattitude because it has the ability to invade privacy.

So what does the future hold for Location Based Services.Not Bright..but with a slight modification might just pull through.Location Aware Applications will do well and have a better chance of sustaining themselves in the retail world. In this case the service is reactive as opposed to being pro-active.A user can query for any information and along with the query he passes his location information, with the assumption that the information returned will be customized taking into account his current location….So what kind of applications are we looking at.

An Application which provides  traffic details and suggest  routes  a user can take to avoid traffic and  get to his destination.Another application could be one that provides information on public transport utilities based on the user’s location.In a nutshell,any application that will provide a user with information, which he is likely to use on a regular basis, will do well.In conclusion,the quality of the content provided will, in the end decide the future of the service.If the content is useful and something that the user will use often, the service will do well

The astounding success of the iTunes store, in selling applications for IPhone has prompted several phone vendors to come out with their own application stores.Nokia has done that with the ‘OVI store’,Google with the ‘Android App Market’,RIM with it’s ‘Blackberry App store’…etc .Every one of them wants to replicate  the IPhone model and thereby hope to make a great deal of money out of it.My guess is they will  fail..here’s why

Apple controls everything that can go into the IPhone..while others don’t

On IPhones ,one cannot install anything without iTunes.This makes it easy for application developers,since this is the only channel they need to concentrate on while building their applications.Especially so for developers making paid applications,they need not worry about any special copy protection mechanisms to prevent their apps from being pirated.Consistent and standard device specification on the IPhone makes it easy for developers to create rich apps with good usability. Users will constantly keep getting new apps and will keep buying!And the only place they can get this from the iTunes store!

The problem with all the other app stores promoted by vendors such as Nokia,RIM etc  is that they have not been thought from ground up.Their devices have not been designed in a way that applications can only be installed through the app store.Their inbuilt mechanism for copy protection,falls way short of developer expectation,with the result that developers need to put in extra licensing features for their paid apps.So this is what i think will happen on these stores,application developers will put the free version of their apps on these app stores and direct users to their site to buy the paid version.This also saves them the commision they need to pay each time a sale of their application happens on the app stores. So if these app stores do not make any money, they will find it hard to justify their existense.And this is why in the current model Apple will win the game while others will need to find novel ways of attracting developers and customers to their app stores.

Being a part of an industry which makes applications for mobile phones, i constantly come across statements such as “Andorid is the future”, “IPhones will rule”..etc . While both the platforms are indeed excellent in terms of their features & functionalities, i’m not willing to bet that either of them in their current form will win the battle of the future!.Here’s why

Android:

Android is Google’s offering to the Smartphone OS world.Mobile devices are an important medium through which people access the internet.Getting into this was an obvious extension of Google’s internet strategy.What has worked for the Android OS  so far is that it is  free and open source.This essentially means that OEMs can manufacture phones based on the OS without having to pay any royalty/license fees.But this, in my opinion is the very same reason why it’s not going to be the OS of the future.With google not ‘owning’ the OS anymore, it will not be able to control what goes into it,the specs of the devices which carry the OS among other things.This will lead to fragmentation and customization of the OS to the point where OEMs would compete to build their own software layers on top of the OS.There will be no one single “Android Experience”.OEMs will come out with different flavours such as touch screen,non touchscreen,different resolutions such as QVGA,VGA,WVGA..etc all matched to suit different price points for their device.Something like this is already happening with Microsoft’s Windows Mobile OS, and we all know what it’s current situation is like!.And for software developers it’s only going to turn into a nightmare making sure that their software works on all flavours of the Android OS while having a consistent user experience.

IPhone:

Apple’s IPhone OS will not suffer from the problems which will eventually plague the Android OS.Apple owns the OS, the device specifications and controls what softwares can go into it(via the App Store).This is what the ‘Apple experience’ is all about.Consistent device behavior,specifications and features will lead to a consistent user experience.But this also has it’s disadvantages.Apple will never come out with a range of phones to cater to different market segments.Eventually human tendency and need for change is not going to be satisfied by Apple merely upgrading it’s OS from time to time.People will want to change devices ,get newer ones and there will come a time when they will not be satisfied exchanging an Iphone for another Iphone!

My guess is the smartphone OS market is going to continue to be fragmented and no single OS is going to have a significant share of the market.As is currently happening  Symbian OS is going to continue to constitently loose it’s majority market share till there is  an equillibrium amongst all smartphone OS.